As a national push for harsher gun control measures grows, liberal backlash against the sweeping tax reform from congressional Republicans increases, and President Donald Trump’s tiffs with nearly everything ranging from China to former FBI director James Comey envelops nightly news cycles, the democrats, contrary to popular belief, are actually losing their midterm advantage. In a report from Axios, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, the Democrat’s electoral advantage over Republicans has fallen from a +12 to just a +4 in the last three months.
There are many factors that have contributed to this result.
A recent Rasmussen poll conducted on likely voters found that Trump’s approval rating is now at 51 percent, up from 39 percent in October. Moreover, only 39 percent of respondents strongly disapproved of the president.
Current voter enthusiasm between Republicans and Democrats is now tracking even at 68 percent, per the report.
Although a candidate’s opinion of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi favors Republican candidates by 16 percent, 60 percent of voters do not consider a candidate’s stance on her important.
As feelings on gun control are high, those who consider it a top issue are split.
Democrats believe that their party will take control of the House in November, however the numbers show that the sentiment is waning. Throughout the past three months, the numbers are tracking more to favor Republicans come Election Day.
For November, according to the reports, 58 percent of adults say they will vote along with 40 percent of millennial voters. 64 percent of white voters, 54 percent of African-American voters, and just 39 percent of Hispanic voters say they will go to the ballot box on November 6.
The only favoring metric for the Democrats is with women voters. 56 percent of women are planning to vote in the midterms with 55 percent of registered women voters favoring Democrat candidates.
75 percent of potential voters who want new gun laws support Democratic candidates, while 80 percent who prioritize protecting gun rights support Republican candidates. However, the group that views gun control as the top issue is split, with 47 percent supporting Democrats and 46 percent favoring Republicans.
As the primaries for the November midterm elections are fast-approaching, the numbers will change. Though, if the economy stays strong, any Democrat will have to differentiate themselves from what Pelosi referred to the tax cuts as “crumbs” for the American people.