WSJ: Trump 37, Biden 31, Kennedy 8
This week’s poll from the Wall Street Journal has Biden back at his historic lows, with approval ratings at 37% and showing him behind former President Donald J. Trump by a widening gap of 6 points.
An admixture of third-party candidates takes a whopping 17% — a total not really seen since Perot ‘92 — with former Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking a notable 8% of the total. 14% of the electorate remains undecided.
The number that is crushing Biden right now is the economy:
Only 23% of voters say Biden’s policies have helped them personally, while 53% say they have been hurt by the president’s agenda. By contrast, about half of voters say Trump’s policies when he was president helped them personally, more than the 37% who say they were hurt.
The number that is hurting Bident and the Democrats writ large at present is the number 24 — meaning the 24% of Democrats who label themselves as disaffected by Biden’s policies, mostly black and Hispanic voters.
Some additional factors? Despite Democratic concerns about “the end of democracy” and Trump’s trolling on Day 1 authoritarianism, much of the rhetoric is not moving the needle on either Biden or Trump.
What is moving the needle? Immigration, inflation, and the state of the economy.
For the Democrats, there is one issue where there is a wedge of light in an otherwise gloomy poll. On abortion, voters go to Biden by a margin of 11 points. Yet abortion alone isn’t enough to accomplish two things: (1) keep the Biden coalition together in any meaningful form, and (2) overcome concerns regarding immigration, inflation, and the economy.
Of course, times change.
In 2012, Romney was over Obama. In 2016, Hillary had the inside track against Trump. Ten months is a lifetime in politics, and many of the disaffected Democrats could come back home to Biden when the choices are made stark and clear.
This article originally appeared in the FXBG Advance. Republished with permission.