Maybe.
Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) is perhaps the weaker of the two Virginia Democrats representing the Commonwealth, though by no means a pushover. With over $7 million cash on hand as of the last reporting quarter, Kaine’s war chest combined with Virginia’s demographics should give any candidate pause after Trump’s drubbing in 2016 and 2020 respectively.
While Trump underperformed Mitt Romney’s 2012 performance, Trump made up the difference in 2020, earning 1.9 million votes in Virginia — nearly touching Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance. There was just one problem with the math — Joe Biden nabbed a historic 2.4 million votes with 54% of the vote.
In 2021, Glenn Youngkin captured the Governor’s Mansion with 1.66 million votes compared to Terry McAuliffe’s 1.59 million.
Virginia’s 2022 proved to be a mixed bag for Republicans as the Dobbs decision overwhelmed what should have been a down year for the White House. Then, 2023 saw a return to hardened lines, but with Republicans adding votes statewide in a calculated push to make 2024 and 2025 hotly contested.
So should Kaine be worried? That depends. At present, there are no fewer than 10 Republicans vying for the nod, most notable among them Eddie Garcia, former VA-10 candidate Hung Cao, and former DeSantis chief of staff Scott Parkinson among many others.
Virginia Republicans would have to field a candidate acceptable to both the Youngkin wings of the party and the Trump faction — a difficult task. Former Governors such as George Allen and Jim Gilmore come to mind, yet it is difficult to find that unifying figure among Virginia Republicans today.
Then there is the omnipresent Trump factor. If there is a galvanizing figure among Democrats, it is Trump. Leftists love to label the man Cheeto Jesus (TM), but in Virginia, his candidacy is more of a godsend to Democrats than Republicans. Simply put, the man is just hated.
This article originally appeared in the FXBG Advance. Republished with permission.