In a 2-1 decision, the Eastern District of Virginia decided on Thursday to approve the newly-redrawn House of Delegates map created by a court-appointed “special master.” The move follows the months-long redistricting impasse after the federal court struck down the 2011 political map, stating that 11 House districts in the Richmond and Hampton Roads metropolitan areas were unconstitutionally racially gerrymandered.
The map created by University of California-Irvine political science professor Bernard Grofman, the same person who was used to redraw the Commonwealth’s U.S. House of Representatives districts in 2016, could very well increase the chance of Democrats flipping control of the lower chamber in the General Assembly. Six Republican-held districts will become, percentage wise, more Democratic just seven months before all 140 seats in the state legislature will be on the ballot in the November elections.
In a report from the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Judges Barbara Milano Keenan and Arenda Wright Allen rejected assertions that the map drawing was partisan-minded.
“Nothing in the record suggests that Dr. Grofman acted with animus toward any incumbents, or toward any party,” the judges wrote in their decision. “We credit Dr. Grofman’s contention that he constructed his proposals without regard to partisan outcome in the non-challenged districts, and that he treated all incumbents equally.”
Judge Robert Payne noted in his dissenting opinion that he did not find the existing map unconstitutional, adding there was “no need for any change to the redistricting plan enacted by the General Assembly.”
House Republicans have remained confident that the original map, drawn in 2011 and upheld by both parties, which also garnered support from the Virginia Legislative Black Caucus, will be enforced even beyond the current ruling.
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the beginning of the appeal and the oral arguments of the case – Virginia House of Delegates v. Bethune Hill (2019) – on March 18. Speaker of the House of Delegates Kirk Cox (R-Colonial Heights) petitioned for a stay on the judicially-mandated map pending the high court decision as it could effect the 2019 primary elections. However, the Eastern District Court denied that request.
Regardless, the new map changes the boundaries of 26 House districts.
Based on the results of the 2012 presidential election, six Republican delegates would be running in districts where a majority of voters chose President Barack Obama, according to an analysis of the maps by the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP).
Republican-held seats that would become harder to defend are:
House District 66: Kirk Cox (R-Colonial Heights) – 32 points more Democratic.
House District 76: Chris Jones (R-Suffolk) – 27.4 points more Democratic.
House District 81: Barry Knight (R-Virginia Beach) – 16.1 points more Democratic.
House District 83: Chris Stolle (R-Virginia Beach) – 12.4 points more Democratic.
House District 91: Gordon Helsel (R-Poquoson) – 19.8 points more Democratic.
House District 94: David Yancey (R-Newport News) – 13.6 points more Democratic.
Nevertheless, the map also alters Democrat-held districts. In all, the plan adopted by the court moves at least 370,000 voters to new districts.
Democratic-held seats that would become harder to defend are:
House District 63: Lashrecse Aird (D-Petersburg) – 25.9 points more Republican.
House District 70: Delores McQuinn (D-Richmond) – 14.9 points more Republican.
House District 77: Cliff Hayes (D-Chesapeake) – 28.4 points more Republican.
House District 90: Joe Lindsey (D-Norfolk) – 20.5 points more Republican.
House District 93: Mike Mullin (D-Newport News) – 12.1 points more Republican.
House District 95: Cia Price (D-Newport News) – 13.7 points more Republican.