Backing away from his 80% prediction that the Democrats would take the U.S. House of Representatives, 538’s Nate Silver is now saying that it is “extremely possible” that the Republicans could maintain control of the lower chamber.
What’s perhaps most shocking about this shift is that it is precisely the same hedging that Silver did in 2016, when 538 (now infamously) hedged their predictions on Clinton winning the White House from a number in the high-90s to 74% just before the election. Trump won despite Silver’s prognostications.
From The Hill:
“The range of outcomes in the House is really wide,” he explained. “Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53.”
“Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House,” he said.”
“But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats,” Silver added. “Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world.”
In short, Silver has absolutely no clue how this Tuesday’s elections are going to turn out, despite heavy hammering by the media and Democrats that a “blue wave” is a foregone conclusion.
In Virginia, not only do we see Riggleman and Taylor peel away in VA05 and VA02 respectively, but Comstock and Brat both are maintaining slight leads going into Tuesday — meaning that for the millions of dollars Pelosi has poured over Wexton and Spanberger?
The blue wave is starting to look more and more like a dud.
