Just two weeks before Election Day, many political experts are no longer asking themselves about the size of the long-told Democratic “blue wave” of the 2018 midterms, but even if there will be a wave at all. Campaign operatives from both political parties have come to admit that the path to flipping the Senate from Republican control has basically disappeared, with retaking the House quickly waning.
“It’s always been an inside straight, and it still is,” Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said of Democrats’ outlook for the Senate in a report from AP. Democrats must pick up two seats to bust the Republicans’ slim 51-49 majority in the upper chamber. However, as Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats which President Donald Trump carried in the 2016 election, the GOP control may actually be bolstered by a handful of wins on part of the majority party.
Maslin added, “If it had been a different year, with a different map, we might have had a terrific sweep. That would be a long shot.”
Trump’s recent performance as “campaigner in chief” seems to have enlivened Republicans as they are now driving an enthusiasm that just simply was not present months ago. Extraordinary divisiveness on part of Democratic leaders during the most recent big-ticket topics like the Supreme Court confirmation hearings are part of the reason why GOP optimism is rising.
“Republican enthusiasm doesn’t quite equal the white-hot enthusiasm of Democratic voters, but the Kavanaugh hearings got it pretty close,” said GOP consultant Whit Ayres.
He explained that Republicans are capitalizing on an “unusual Senate map,” which gives lopsided favor to GOP candidates running for Senate in the states that Trump won in his presidential campaign, as well as his increasing popularity. Ayres calls it “maybe the most Republican-leaning map of our lifetimes.”
Furthermore, although issues like the President’s handling of the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi have garnered extreme criticism from members of the Republican Party, they appear to have little impact on voters.
Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to reclaim the majority in the House of Representatives. Even though Republicans have fallen behind in the fundraising battle in many congressional districts throughout the county, an influx of new money into highly contested House districts held by Republicans has stifled clear Democratic gains.
The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a super PAC aligned with retiring Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (WI-1) is expected to spend $100 million before Election Day, highlighting a shifting landscape to its core donors.
“The polling momentum that began with the Supreme Court confirmation hearings has continued, and the environment has continued to improve,” said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. He added the fact that “20 races that will decide the majority remain a coin-flip” is still the driving factor of a massive push before November 6.