New presidential preference survey results published by Roanoke College could spell disaster for the Biden campaign.
Polling shows the pair of presidential hopefuls at “42 percent each in a one-on-one contest in the state, the first time the pollster has found Biden and Trump tied,” according to The Hill.
The Hill also noted the following:
Biden is boosted to a 2-point lead over Trump — 40 percent to 38 percent — when other candidates are included, but that difference is within the poll’s margin of error. …
“These results suggest that Virginia could be ‘in play’ in November,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and a professor emeritus at Roanoke College, “but five months is an eternity in politics.”
For Trump, winning the state would be a major gain since the state has largely preferred Democrats in presidential and statewide elections over the past several decades, with Governor Youngkin’s 2021 win being the obvious exception. This is largely due to the Democrat dominance in the Washington D.C. suburbs and the state’s other urban population centers such as Richmond. Biden having to play defense in Virginia could also take the campaign’s resources away from other true swing states where they could win or loose the electoral college such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Trump and his top campaign advisers have been pushing a narrative of Virginia as a toss-up state for a number of months. whilst Democrats including top Virginia Senate Democrat Louise Lucas has done their best to dismiss the idea. Lucas told The Hill that “Trump is toxic and has no campaign presence in Virginia, while the Biden campaign is working to win every vote across the commonwealth. He’s welcome to waste his time campaigning here.”