There is just 102 days to go until Election Day and the battle for the control of Congress is well underway as Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats around the electorate, a record number since 1930. The retirements of many prominent Republicans including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (WI-01) have Democrats thinking they are the substantial favorites going into November, but there are many extenuating factors surrounding the validity of their so-called “blue wave” that may end up being a wave goodbye to their chance of reclaiming the majority.
Out of the 42 seats Republicans currently hold that are not being defended by an incumbent, eight are in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, with another 13 being districts that President Donald Trump won with less than 55 percent.
The Cook Political Report found that since 1992, in an electoral situation in which the sitting President’s party – this time being Republican – was defending an open congressional seat two years after the President failed to win it, that party is up against 0-23 in keeping the seat.
Axios reports that there have been some fundraising deficits within GOP campaigns. “[I]n 20 of the 42 seats, the leading Democrat raised more than the leading Republican between April and June, including in seven of eight Clinton-carried districts,” according to the report.
Nevertheless, the GOP can take some solace in the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) monumental monetary advantage over their Democratic counterparts, and an immense voter contact program that is set to contact hundreds of millions of potential voters ahead of the November midterms. The party has a war chest of at least $47.4 million cash-on-hand, five and a half times more than the $8.7 million the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has banked.
Furthermore, the RNC has placed place over 500 staffers in at least 27 states, including all “battleground districts.” The party has also trained more then 15,000 “fellows” to engage in door knocking and other forms of voter contact to build a groundwork for victory in November.
After Democrat Conor Lamb‘s win in the Pennsylvania special election in March, Democrats now need to flip 23 congressional seats to take back the majority in the House of Representatives. Cook’s ratings for the 42 Republican open seats are:
Likely Democrat: 3
Leaning Democrat: 5
Toss-up: 4
Leaning Republican: 7
Likely Republican: 4
Solid Republican: 19
Even though the spread looks good for Republicans, the GOP may lose a few seats, but not the massive wave many are speculating.
With Democratic candidates embracing the resistance sentiment, many come off as unhinged, playing to people’s emotions. With calls to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), denouncing U.S.-Israeli relations, rolling back the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and many other opposition-fueled agenda items, the liberal fervor may overcook candidates in their mission to take back the majority in Congress.