The latest poll from the Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs reveals a surprising shift in voter sentiment: former President Trump is currently leading President Biden by 3 points in Virginia, a state that Biden won convincingly in 2020.
The last Republican presidential nominee to win Virginia was George W. Bush in 2004.
Key Poll Findings
- Trump vs. Biden: The poll indicates that 39% of respondents support Trump, while 36% support Biden. The numbers reflect a significant decrease in Biden’s support – 6 percentage points – since VCU’s last poll in December, with Trump’s support remaining steady.
- Margin of Error: Despite Trump’s lead, the poll notes that the difference in support is within its margin of error.
VCU News has additional coverage of the survey’s results:
That said, with 111 days before Election Day, President Joe Biden trails former President Trump in Virginia 39% to 36%, according to the Summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll. President Biden’s approval hovers around the same support number, at 36% of voters approving of his job as president.
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Half of Virginians (50%) approve of how Governor Youngkin is handling his job as governor of Virginia, with 34% disapproving. This is a 4-point drop in approval and a 3-point increase in disapproval from the Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll. Governor Youngkin’s approval varies across demographics of Virginians. Democrats were more likely to disapprove of Governor Youngkin’s performance (62%) than approve (23%), while Republicans were more likely to approve (78%) than disapprove (10%). Around half of Independent Virginians approve (49%), with 21% disapproving. Approval ratings also fluctuated based on household income. The highest approval was among those earning less than $20,000 annually (71%) or earning between $70k and $100k (61%), while the lowest approvals were in three income categories between $20k and $70k (43% average). Governor Youngkin’s approval was higher among Black Virginians than in the winter poll (51% versus 36%), and among Hispanic respondents, 35% approve of his performance compared with 51% of non-Hispanic respondents.
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Virginians were asked whether former President Trump’s conviction by a jury on 34 felony counts of falsification of business records in the first degree makes them more or less likely to vote for him for president. Over half of respondents (53%) are less likely to vote for him, while 31% say they are more likely. Around half of Independents (45%) say the conviction makes them less likely to vote for former President Trump, with 25% saying it increases their likelihood. The results were heavily polarized by political party. For Democrats, just 4% are more likely to vote for former President Trump in light of the conviction, with 90% saying it makes them less likely. Conversely, just over 6 in 10 Republican respondents say the conviction makes them more likely to vote for former President Trump, with 18% saying they are less likely.
Voter Concerns
- Cost of Living: The number one issue for Virginia voters remains the cost of living.
- Reproductive Rights: This issue ranks as the second most important concern among voters.
- Immigration: 52% of Virginia voters see our porous border and dysfunctional immigration system as major problems.
Support for Other Candidates
- Jill Stein: 2% of Virginians indicated they would vote for Jill Stein.
- Cornel West: 1% of respondents would support Cornel West.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 9% of voters expressed support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Party Loyalty and Independent Voters
- Republican Support: Over 80% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump.
- Democratic Support: 75% of Democrats intend to back Biden, while 6% from both parties lean towards Kennedy.
- Independents: A notable 27% of independent voters intend to support Kennedy.
Decline in Biden’s Support Among Black Voters
Perhaps most notably, the poll highlights a momentous drop in Biden’s favorability among Black voters. Only 46% of Black Virginians said they would vote for Biden, a steep decline from the 67% who supported him in the previous poll.
Reflecting on the down-ballot consequences of such a dramatic shift, Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia, said: “I think the results show that Virginia is truly a ‘battleground state’ for the presidency. The drop by 20 points (to 46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2.”
The VCU–Wilder poll surveyed 809 Virginian voters between June 24 and July 3, with a margin of error of ±4.8 percentage points.
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