The Republican Standard

Winners and Losers: Youngkin Edition

Antony-22 via Wikimedia Commons

The whole election came down to 70,000 votes.

For me, this is the fun part where I look at my own MS Excel charts — yes, old habits die hard — with my own special math and reflect on what I got right and what I missed.

Despite counsel otherwise, Princess Blanding of the Liberation Party did not make a sizable impact. The generic ballot was probably even, right where Christopher Newport University put it (I had it at D+2). Youngkin winning the race by 5-8 points? Pure bunk and the people peddling it should be ashamed of themselves — such rumors drove up Democratic turnout.

I had also assumed a universe of 2.6 million (most assumed 2.3 million) and over 3 million Virginians voted. Early voting cut both ways as Republicans and Democrats both enjoyed the advantages and reaped the benefits.

Yet by and large, the election really did pivot on about 30,000 votes — slightly more than I anticipated given the 70,000 vote margin.

Things were close and Republicans fought for every vote — and won despite the odds.

On to the Winners and Losers:

WINNERS: The Most Diverse Ticket in Virginia History (TM)

DRAW: Will Republicans Keep Their Word?

LOSERS: People So Offended by Racism They Cosplay as Neo-Nazis At Republican Events (You Morons)

Which of course leads us all to a moment of reflection. Because while victory might have 1,000 fathers and especially in close races, there are certain personalities who make the rest possible — even to the realm of possibility.

That man is Pete Snyder.

ONE LAST SHOUT OUT TO THE MAN WHOSE HARD WORK WHO MADE VICTORY HAPPEN

Once upon a time, the Republican Party of Virginia couldn’t rub two wooden nickels together. Activists didn’t trust their own party, candidates didn’t trust the party, elected officials didn’t invest in their own institutions, State Central Committee was at sixes-and-sevens and the Republican congressional delegation was waiting on the aftermath of several primary contests before they would decide whether a hostile State Central was worth rescuing.

Pete Snyder didn’t care about any of that.

For 12 years, this man has propped up the Republican Party in Virginia when few others — in fact, no one else — would. For 12 years, he gathered the best and brightest, made friendships, healed divisions and would pick up the phone at any time just to shoot the breeze or offer advice.

Fate decided that this was not his year.

Some of that support he cultivated bled away to other campaigns. Damn shame on them, but you never heard Pete Snyder whine even once. Snyder kept plugging along and doing the right thing. The turncoats get the reward of a dirty conscience.

Yet if imitation is the most sincere form of flattery, then Youngkin adopting most if not all of Snyder’s campaign rhetoric — right down to his persona as a happy warrior and mimicking Snyder’s 30 Day Fund which rescued thousands of small businesses — was perhaps the best hat tip in recent memory.

Yet none of what just happened would have happened without Pete Snyder putting in the work when others stood aloof and distant during the dog days.

Quality deserves recognition. This man is owed our thanks.

That makes him a winner in my book.

So What Happens Next?

Back when Youngkin was down by 7-9 points, the moment of reversal came when the campaign settled down to brass tacks and began embracing a policy agenda based on the TRS Contract With Virginia — the now famous Day One Plan.

This plan is now a staggering reality that the incoming Youngkin administration will be hammering home for the foreseeable future.

Tax cuts, fully funding the police, 400,000 new jobs and 10,000 new small business startups, banning CRT and building 20 new charter schools, and fixing the DMV and Voter ID? All on the table and all going to the Virginia Senate where 1.5 million Virginians will expect immediate answers.

I don’t know who is more excited about the revamp — defenders of parental choice in education or the Department of Motor Vehicles who desperately wants the technology upgrade.

Either way, there is nothing here that Senate Democrats should be able to oppose legitimately in January — at least, not without earning the ire and anger that just wiped out Democratic majorities in the lower chamber.

Youngkin is certainly in the driver’s seat to do more on education reform. The question remains as to how much political capital Youngkin is willing to sacrifice — or earn — in order to fulfill his promises to Virginia parents.

I suspect Youngkin will be a man of his word and then some — which is great news for Virginia families in the most significant win for Virginia Republicans since George Allen’s 1993 win.

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