Youngkin’s Wins in Democrat-Held Congressional Districts Highlights Trouble for Incumbents

TRS Staff

3 years ago

A new Washington Post and ABC News poll shows generic Republican candidates with a 10-point lead over Democrats nationwide.

Of course, that includes results from dark blue districts. The outlook for Democrats representing purple states and seats is more dire.

Case in point: Republican Glenn Youngkin’s narrow but comprehensive victory over Democrat Terry McAuliffe in blue Virginia. Moreover, a shallow dive into the results show that Youngkin cruised to victory two congressional districts held by Democrats, underlying the precarious position swing state Democrats find themselves in today.

The Washington Post reports:

The second reelection campaigns for Virginia Democratic Reps. Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria were already promising to be nail-biters, regardless of who was in the Virginia governor’s mansion.

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Youngkin defeated McAuliffe by roughly 11 percentage points in Spanberger’s district, anchored in the western Richmond suburbs, and defeated McAuliffe by eight points in Luria’s, anchored in Virginia Beach. And Republican House of Delegates candidates declared victory over three Democratic incumbents in the Hampton Roads area — each of them seats that, like in Luria’s case, flipped during the Trump era — even as two of the races remain uncalled.

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An analysis by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project showed that Republicans increased their vote margin last week in each of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts compared to 2017, with Virginia’s 7th District swinging 7.5 points to the right and the 2nd swinging 12.5 points that way. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) narrowly won the 2nd District that year and narrowly lost in the 7th — the only loss for a statewide candidate in either district during President Donald Trump’s administration.

Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, said Youngkin’s victories in Virginia’s most competitive regions offer a playbook for the Republican candidates ultimately nominated to challenge Spanberger and Luria in November. The most recent election, he said, showed that the inflationary “Trump bubble” — built up with moderate voters’ antipathy toward the former president — has burst, and that successful candidates will need to shift their strategies to adjust for an era in which Trump looms on the fringes but isn’t necessarily motivating swing voters.

Will moderate Republicans and independents help deliver a crushing blow against Democrats nationwide next year? As always, tell us your thoughts in the comments below and spread the word on social media!