Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) has “a clear edge” over her Republican opponent, Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, in the battle for who will be Virginia’s next governor, reported WJLA, Arlington’s ABC affiliate.
Both candidates soared through their primaries after other challengers dropped out or failed to qualify for the ballot, but simply winning over their own partisan voters won’t win the race in November. Youngkin is barred from running again by the state constitution.
Spanberger’s reputation as a moderate Democrat who has been willing to criticize fellow Democrats is likely helping her. The analysis by WJLA described her as having “a clear edge” over Earle-Sears due to “her lead among independent voters and stronger favorability ratings.”
The latest poll in the race was conducted by Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR), between May 12 and May 19 using landline, cell phone, and online polling of 658 Virginia residents, statistically weighted for gender, race, age, geographic location, and political affiliation. The weighted margin of error was 5.25%.
In this poll, Spanberger was the choice of 43% of likely voters, Earle-Sears 26%, 3% said someone else, and 28% were undecided — a noteworthy opportunity for Earle-Sears to possibly regain some ground.
Dr. Harry Wilson, a professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke and the interim IPOR director, commented that the six months until the gubernatorial election in November was “an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points.”
“More than a quarter of Virginians are undecided,” he continued, “and there is good news for both candidates. Spanberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears. The favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern.”
