Ezra Deutsch-Feldman via Wikimedia Commons

The Cook Political Report has moved Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, currently held by Representative Abigail Spanberger (D), from Lean D to Toss-Up, expanding the number of Democrat-held seats that are Toss-Up or favor Republicans. That list already included VA-02, held by Representative Elaine Luria (D). Republicans also hope to win VA-10, occupied by Representative Jennifer Wexton (D); Cook rates that race among 155 Solid Democrat seats.

Former Prince William County GOP Committee vice chairman Willie Deutsch said both VA-10 and VA-07 outcomes depend on President Joe Biden’s approval rating in November.

“If Joe Biden’s approval rating ticks down another five points, then we probably win VA-10,” he told The Virginia Star. “If it ticks up five points, it’s probably out of hand. If it stays about where we are, we probably have a jump-ball shot. If we win in Virginia 10, we’re going to crush in the House of Representatives in November.”

“It’s [VA-10] not in the 16 that we need to win, right? Whereas probably like Virginia’s 2nd district, if we lost that, we probably don’t have a shot at winning the House,” Deutsch said. “Seven and 10 are both probably on the outer edge of the wave.”

On Tuesday evening, candidates for the GOP nomination for VA-10 met in a forum in Loudoun County. In a straw poll after the forum, Loudoun-area businessman Caleb Max took first place with 33 percent, followed by Loudoun County parent Brandon Michon in second, and retired Navy Captain Hung Cao took third.

“Caleb, a small business owner who was raised in the 10th district understands what the voters care about,” Max’s campaign said in a press release.

Prince William County Supervisor Jeanine Lawson, thought to be one of the front runners, took sixth out of the 11 candidates.

Deutsch, a supporter of Lawson, said that straw polls can be unreliable due to regional representation, and whether or not all the candidates are present at the event. Lawson was at a Prince William County budget meeting, not at the forum. Deutsch said that often it’s better to look at multiple straw polls from multiple events.

“Really, a straw poll just says of the people who showed up at this event, what did they think. I mean, it’s a lick-your-finger-in-the-wind, one indicator,” Deutsch said.

This article originally appeared in The Virginia Star. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of The Republican Standard.