Election Day is finally here and polls in Virginia have closed.
The race for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and all 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates are up for grabs.
Anything less than a landslide by Terry McAuliffe should send shivers down the spines of national Democrats to say nothing of the implications of President Biden’s Build Back Better Agenda.
One caveat: With absentee ballots being counted first, we except to see a substantial McAuliffe lead starting off.
Watch as the results trickle in:
7:29 Update:
With 10% of precincts reporting Glenn Youngkin leads Terry McAuliffe 52.8% to 46.4%.
Thus far, McAuliffe leads Youngkin by 10 points in Loudoun County with 34% of the vote counted.
McAuliffe has a 5 point lead in Henrico County with 16% of the vote reported.
7:32 Update:
Republican ticket out to an early lead in Chesterfield.
Youngkin: 51.93%
McAuliffe: 46.89%https://t.co/bwfxpaxCqC— Graham Moomaw (@gmoomaw) November 2, 2021
If those numbers hold up in suburban Richmond it may be an early night.
However, Democratic strategists claim that McAuliffe never intended to win Chesterfield County, even though Biden won there in 2020.
7:35 Update:
With 14% of the vote reporting, Glenn Youngkin leads with 55% of the vote, 11.2 percentage points ahead of Terry McAuliffe. Votes from Fairfax County remain outstanding.
7:42 Update:
The 100 precincts or so that have reported so far show an ultra-competitive election and very high turnout.
7:47 Update:
The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are highly competitive, too. Jason Miyares has a 13.4 point lead with 23% of the vote reported. Winsome Sears has a 14.6 point edge. Both are running slightly behind Youngkin.
7:48 Update:
🚨 FIRST RETURNS FROM FAIRFAX:
Glenn A. Youngkin – R 34,410
Terry R. McAuliffe – D 98,657
This is all early vote and Vote By Mail- 133k votes counted so far. Still Early Vote and VBM votes to be counted.— Ryan Nobles (@ryanobles) November 2, 2021
Based on those initial returns, McAuliffe has 74% of the vote in Fairfax County. That’s probably lower than what he wants, although it’s still early.
Turnout Explosion
7:53 Update:
Voter turnout for this election looking to be upwards of 3M statewide, that’s more than 50% of VA’s 5.9 registered voters @WAVY_News
— Kayla Gaskins (@KaylaGaskinsTV) November 2, 2021
7:57 Update:
Officials say McAuliffe is currently doing better than anticipated in Loudoun County. Still very early though @WAVY_News
— Kayla Gaskins (@KaylaGaskinsTV) November 2, 2021
Currently, McAuliffe has a 6 point lead in Loudoun County. Eighty-three percent of the vote is counted there.
8:02 Update:
That being said, Youngkin has expanded on Donald Trump’s 2020 lead in GOP-leaning Fauquier County.
Trump won Fauquier County by 17. Youngkin currently leading it by 42 with 55% of the vote in. pic.twitter.com/JESDSDwBfh
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) November 2, 2021
8:09 Update:
According to The New York Times’ Nate Cohn, McAuliffe is slightly underperforming. Although it’s still early, so buckle up.
Is the House of Delegates About to Flip?
8:13 Update:
Democrats may be in danger of losing their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. Republicans lead in 14 Dem-held districts right now. It's still early, of course, but they only need 6 to flip.
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) November 3, 2021
Another Ominous Sign for Democrats?
8:16 Update:
Culpeper: Youngkin needed to win it by 30%, per my benchmarks. He wins it by 34%. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
8:21 Update:
Danville (Southside VA): McAuliffe needed to win it by 10%, per my benchmarks. McAuliffe wins it by only 7%. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
Meanwhile, Youngkin continues to over perform in rural counties.
Radford (college town in SWVA): McAuliffe needed to win it by 0.3%, per my benchmarks. Youngkin wins it by 9%. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
However, the City of Richmond isn’t reporting yet.
And Fairfax County is only 8% counted.
8:29 Update:
Update at nearly 1500 precincts: Youngkin is still on track for victory, running a ahead of what he needs across basically every dimension worth looking at.
But it's worth noting just how close things are to 'expectations,' which is simply shifting the 2020 result to the right pic.twitter.com/Mbe3pg7NFB— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2021
BREAKING: Dave Wasserman (U.S. House editor at the Cook Political Report) is calling the race for Youngkin.
This is breaking news. Stay with The Republican Standard for the latest updates.
8:38 Update:
The Cook Political Report is considered the best in the business when it comes to political prognostication.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455695676025839618
8:41 Update:
The Post’s election model is now turned on in Virginia's race for governor: We are estimating the likely outcome based on past election returns as well as votes counted in the race so far. https://t.co/FfFY1JxytK pic.twitter.com/qrvkgzZFHP
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 3, 2021
An Unmitigated Disaster?
Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics tweeted an interesting graphic. It appears Virginia Democrats could face an unmitigated disaster down-ballot, with McAuliffe underperforming in most of Virginia’s counties and independent cities.
Obvs people calling it for Youngkin, but this illustrates the difficulties Ds are going to have elsewhere. This could be an unmitigated disaster for Ds if these numbers continue to hold. pic.twitter.com/Z0G519xYrk
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) November 3, 2021
It’ll be interesting to see how the New Jersey’s governor’s race shakes out.
8:47 Update:
Woof, McAuliffe is down to 67.6% in Fairfax County. While a two-to-one margin is objectively decisive, the current results are well below his campaign’s target number.
8:52 Update:
BREAKING: Dave Wasserman is calling the lieutenant governor race for Republican Winsome Sears
I've seen enough: Winsome Sears (R) defeats Hala Ayala (D) in the Virginia lieutenant governor's race. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
8:53 Update:
This one graphic captures how Youngkin achieved victory in a Biden +10 state.
You can bet every Republican in the country is going to run on education in 2022 because of what happened in Virginia tonight. (Even if in reality education was just part of the picture and "education" is an umbrella for a hundred different sub-issues.) pic.twitter.com/S11lYm0AXW
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) November 3, 2021
9:01 Update:
Here are the latest numbers with 64% of the vote tallied (H/T The New York Times) –
Governor
Youngkin – 55.1%
McAuliffe – 44.3%
Lieutenant Governor
Sears – 55.3%
Ayala – 44.7%
Attorney General
Jason Miyares – 54.8%
Mark Herring (incumbent) – 45.2%
9:02 Update:
👀
Yep, Caroline and Nelson counties went to T-Mac in 2013 but flipped to Youngkin by double-digits. https://t.co/pH5WwrdMLm
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) November 3, 2021
9:10 Update:
According to MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki, it appears that the political map has changed in Virginia.
Loudoun County remains blue. And Youngkin won’t do as well there as Mitt Romney did in 2012. However, Youngkin kept GOP losses in Northern Virginia to a minimum and added to the Donald Trump’s 2020 margins in the more rural parts of the state.
9:13 Update:
Turnout in the Virginia gubernatorial election will likely exceed 3 million votes, higher than 2.6 million votes in 2017 and 2.2 million votes in 2013. Tonight is a great example of how “high turnout” does not necessarily foreshadow Democratic wins. https://t.co/RF8e7ajzgT
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 3, 2021
Horrible messaging from the Democratic nominee doesn’t help either.
9:15 Update:
Just about the only places we're seeing McAuliffe (D) exceed his vote targets are inside the Beltway. It's not enough to win, but it is enough to keep Youngkin (R)'s eventual margin quite narrow, maybe 2-3%. #VAGOV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
We’ll keep you updated as the vote total continues to roll in.
Decision Desk Makes Its Call
9:25 Update:
Elections returns, analysis and projections website Decision Desk is calling the Virginia governor’s race for Republican Glenn Youngkin.
Terry McAuliffe underperformed his 2013 showing in southwestern Virginia—by as much as 20 points in places.
9:34 Update:
Decision Desk also announced winners in Virginia’s other statewide races. The Democrats in the Virginia State Senate should count their blessings that the Old Dominion’s state senate elections aren’t for another two years.
Decision Desk HQ projects Winsome Sears, @WinsomeSears, as the winner of the Virginia Lieutenant Gubernatorial Electionhttps://t.co/ez8QKULSbI
Race Called At: 8:43 PM (Eastern) pic.twitter.com/gZ3elv4q33
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 3, 2021
Decision Desk HQ projects Jason Miyares, @JasonMiyaresVA as the winner of the Virginia Attorney General Electionhttps://t.co/ez8QKULSbI
Race Called At: 9:10 PM (Eastern) pic.twitter.com/vHKPw3W9HX
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 3, 2021
9:38 Update:
Group that helped Trump win in 2016 https://t.co/AwOV7P2qwA
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 3, 2021
According to Kapur’s analysis, McAuliffe is running (a bit) ahead of Biden with minority voters, and he’s running a little behind Biden with white men. However, white women swung decisively against him.
9:44 Update:
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455710934454915075
10:12 Update:
Needless to say, tonight's results are consistent w/ a political environment in which Republicans would comfortably take back both the House and Senate in 2022.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021
