Influential pollster Nate Silver is now predicting that former President Donald Trump is on track to win the Electoral College by a wide margin in the upcoming presidential election. According to Silver’s latest forecast, Trump has a 63.8% chance of securing the majority of electoral votes, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails with just a 36% chance.
Silver’s model, which was published on his blog, “Silver Bulletin,” marks a shift from earlier projections that showed a closer race between Trump and Harris. The model currently projects Trump receiving 312 electoral votes, compared to Harris’s 226. This would exceed Trump’s 2016 victory, when he won 304 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton.
The forecast shows Trump leading in all key swing states, positioning him strongly ahead of the first presidential debate hosted by ABC News on Tuesday.
Fox News reports:
Polling guru Nate Silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the Electoral College in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday, after a NYT-Siena College poll found the former president leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point.
Harris has come out ahead in several national polls and swing state polls since taking over the top of the ticket. However, the results of the new NYT/Siena College poll, according to Silver, show that the results of the poll confirmed his election model’s view that there was a “shift in momentum” in the race.
The NYT/Siena college poll also found more voters said Harris is “too liberal or progressive” on key policy issues than voters who said they considered Trump to be “too conservative.”
Despite Trump’s projected advantage in the Electoral College, Silver’s model still gives Harris a slight edge in the popular vote, with a 56% likelihood of winning compared to Trump’s 44%. This reflects a potential split between the popular vote and Electoral College, similar to the 2016 election.
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No doubt in my mind that Trump will win by a big margin! And the more time that passes, and Kamahaha exposes herself for the giggling idiot she is, the stronger that convication comes for me!! TRUMP 2024!!