CNN out with a new poll showing that Republican fortunes in 2018 have strengthened significantly, cutting a D+18 environment that would have spelled catastrophe into a much more modest — and in some instances, positive — D+5. From Axios:
Congressional Republicans have seen a bounce in generic polling against Democrats after passing tax cuts last month. A new CNN poll tightened the margin to 5 points — with Democrats at 49% and Republicans at 44%. The same poll showed Democrats leading by 18 points last month.
Why it matters: The GOP is banking its 2018 hopes on the tax law, and while it’s far from universally popular it is making a difference. A 5-point deficit is still bad, though at least the sky isn’t falling. One thing that should be worrying: that CNN poll has those excited about turning out for the midterms favoring Democrats by 15 points.
Real Clear Politics has the 2018 Generic Ballot standing at D+7.4 — a precipitous five and a half point rise from where Republican fortunes stood at Christmas:
What is unclear at the moment is how the Senate Democratic gambit to shut down the federal government in order to force the issue with 800,000 Dreamers — childhood arrivals who were brought to the United States illegally, but have known no other country but America — is playing out in the 2018 generic ballot, though at least one poll suggests that in the exchange between a federal shutdown and DACA, Democrats have played their hand rather poorly.
