Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a widely followed election forecaster, has shifted its rating of Virginia’s 2025 governor’s race from “lean Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”
The change comes as Democratic nominee and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) continues to hold an edge over Republican nominee and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in most public polls. According to the Decision Desk HQ average, Spanberger is leading 47.1 percent to 38.7 percent.
In April, the Cook Political Report also moved the race toward Democrats, reclassifying it from a “toss-up” to “lean Democratic.”
Still, Republicans note that some recent polling suggests a potentially tighter contest. A Roanoke College survey released last month found Earle-Sears cutting Spanberger’s lead from 17 points earlier in the year to just 7 points. Critics of that poll caution it relied heavily on 2021 turnout patterns, which saw higher Republican participation under then-candidate Glenn Youngkin’s winning campaign.
GOP strategists have acknowledged challenges in flipping the race but remain hopeful that momentum could shift as the campaign intensifies and turnout dynamics come into sharper focus.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also made changes in two other gubernatorial contests: Maine’s race moved from “likely Democratic” to “lean Democratic”—a more favorable outlook for Republicans—while Iowa’s rating shifted from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
