If you are familiar with the concept of a Black Swan event, then you can appreciate that we have just experienced one. A “Black Swan” is a metaphor for an event that is a complete surprise and has a significant disruptive impact. When Black Swan events occur, they are typically misinterpreted or minimized and appreciated only in hindsight. The term draws its original meaning from the expectation that black swans don’t actually exist. But in fact, they do. However, when people refer to Black Swan events, they are referring to something unforeseen, unlikely, yet hugely consequential.
Latter-day interpretations of Black Swan occurrences have these characteristics. First, they are rare and unpredictable. Second, the consequences of these events are extreme—whether beneficial or catastrophic—although often only the catastrophic Black Swan events attract attention. The 9-11 attack by Islamist terrorists and the COVID-19 epidemic unleashed by China come to mind. Most recently, we witnessed one on 10 September 2025, the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.
Kirk was a remarkable young man who founded Turning Point USA, which spiritually and politically inspired a large swath of Generation Z (born 1997 to 2012) as well as Millennials (born 1981 to 1996). Gen Z folks are typically known for their digital connectedness and social awareness, whereas Millennials are also tech-savvy and place an emphasis on social issues. Likewise, Kirk impacted Generation Alpha, those born since 2013, which is the first generation to be fully immersed in the digital age. He understood the cultural, political, and technological shifts that define each group. All in all, these generations are quite different from their parents and grandparents. In particular, Kirk understood how young males of all races have lost their way, feel isolated, and are desperate to find purpose in life.
Kirk gave them a purpose: Jesus. He was also unapologetically conservative and cast an ideological vision that resonated with young Americans who voted for President Donald Trump in numbers that put him across the finish line on Election Day 2024. He travelled university campuses across the land, challenging those who disagreed with him in his “Prove Me Wrong” campus rallies. They also challenged him. He prevailed. And more and more young people flocked to his way of thinking.
Kirk’s worldview was a Christian one that extolled traditional virtues and values, including traditional marriage and the importance of procreation. He believed that if you engage young people in frank yet respectful debate on these matters, you will win them to your view. He won over many. He died by a hateful assassin’s bullet, doing just that, engaging people in peaceful debate, not violence.
I, for one, had no expectations that Charlie Kirk would be murdered like that and then bitterly vilified in death by the far left. They hated him, of course. But to be brutally murdered for engaging in free speech? No, I didn’t expect that at all. Many others like me were surprised. And for that reason, it was indeed a Black Swan event.
This came at us suddenly, unexpected by rational people who recoil at the idea of political murder. But the second aspect of this Black Swan-ness must not go unnoticed. Kirk’s murder and its aftermath will have enormous political consequences for the left in future elections.
Kirk energized a vast population of young people whose response to his murder could not be more different from that of the ANTIFA-inspired anti-Trump riots of 2017 to 2020 or the post-George Floyd outrage following his death in the custody of police officers. No, in the wake of Kirk’s murder, there has been worship, a turning toward God, and orderly prayer vigils that have honored a man of peace. The left was outraged by him. The right was inspired. And that is the significant difference that will have shock waves equivalent to a Black Swan event. Ironically, the left cannot see it coming. However, it will be apparent this November in Virginia and New Jersey when those states hold gubernatorial and legislative elections.
At this point, the pollsters tracking these races don’t see it either, as the Republican candidates in those states are trailing, albeit within reach. It would be beneficial for prognosticators to recall the unexpected results in Virginia’s 2017 election, when Democratic voters, angered by Hillary Clinton’s defeat by President Trump, flooded to the polls to vent their spleen at Republican candidates, almost all of whom were leading in the polls at the time. On election night, they lost. I lost too. That was a Black Swan event for us all, one we did not anticipate.
On November 4th, 2025, do not be surprised to see young conservatives inspired by Charlie Kirk turn out to deliver a significant victory to Republicans. A Black Swan is taking flight.
SCOTT LINGAMFELTER is a former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, a retired U.S. Army colonel, and writes over at Copybook Warrior
