This morning’s CNU Wason Center poll gives rather predictable numbers: Northam continues to underperform the generic ballot, and based on where one plunks down on voter enthusiasm?
…that’s where the election is going to be. From the release:
Democrat Ralph Northam holds a 6-point lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the campaign to be Virginia’s next governor, according to a new Wason Center survey of likely Virginia voters. Northam is the choice of 47% of voters surveyed, while Gillespie is the choice of 41%. Libertarian Cliff Hyra polls at 4%, with 8% undecided.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Justin Fairfax leads Republican Jill Vogel by 5-points, 46% to 42%, while Democrat (and incumbent) Mark Herring leads Republican John Adams in the race for attorney general by 5-points, 47% to 42%.
The survey of 776 likely voters has a margin of error is +/- 3.7%.
Meaning that if the generic ballot is a more respectable D+2 or D+3? Gillespie is well within the margin of error.
What is more interesting here is that both Vogel and Adams are practically up against the MOE even in the CNU Wason poll — which means that for some reason the gubernatorial ticket is weaker than the two downticket races (another item that speaks to a generic ballot skewed left — because in a race where you have hypothetical generic downtickets, the gap should be much closer to the generic line, so to speak).
All in all, this poll tells folks exactly what they want to see. Whether CNU Wason updates their generic ballot will remain entirely based on their methodology and whether the RCP averages tighten up. Notable here that CNU Wason withheld the presidential approval ratings, which polls are now showing Trump consistently hovering in the mid-40s for the first time (Rasmussen at 44%).
Also interesting to note on this poll — over 2/3 of the sample? Cell phones and not land lines, which is an interesting play indeed.
Time will tell if the generic ballot tightens up for the CNU Wason poll, or if a shift is made away from cell phones and towards (rural) landline owners.
In the meantime, for the constituent parts that the poll is made of? No real surprises here… Northam continues to underperform in a race where he is running out of math and running out of time.
