The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election saw every county in the state become increasingly Republican.
The gains, made by a state party that had been in the wilderness for more than a decade, were stark.
Now, Republicans hope to capitalize on that trend by flipping two redrawn U.S. House seats.
As Roll Call reports:
Democrats have enjoyed a seven-to-four advantage in the House delegation since taking over three seats previously held by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections. And Democrats held on to that advantage during a more tumultuous 2020 cycle.
This cycle, Virginia provided a great example that shifting redistricting authority to a commission doesn’t guarantee a smooth process. Back in the fall, the bipartisan redistricting commission failed to agree on new lines, so two special masters, including Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics, drew the new map at the direction of the state Supreme Court.
The result produced new 2nd and 7th districts that would have voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 elections and Youngkin in 2021, making them the marquee races to watch in the commonwealth.
Roll Call’s initial rating for the race in the 2nd District is toss-up, although Youngkin won the Tidewater-based seat by 12 points last November. Even if there isn’t a red wave, a credible GOP candidate should be able to unseat Democrat Elaine Luria.
In the 7th District, Abigail Spanberger faces another competitive election.
That said, redistricting was to her benefit, making the seat a few more points Democratic.
Spanberger will be ready. She had a considerable $3 million in the bank at the end of the year and has tried to cultivate a moderate image separate from her liberal colleagues in the House. But this election will test whether that work matters. Considering Biden would have won the new district by 7 points in 2020 and Youngkin would have won it by 6 points in 2021, this is a lower tier takeover opportunity for Republicans. But it’s within reach for the GOP under the current conditions. Initial Rating: Tilt Democratic.
