In a debate where the media has now universally panned the contest of ideas as 3-0 to Gillespie? Northam’s low-energy performance might be the last straw.
Ress: Ideas On Why The CNU Poll Might Be Wrong
David Ress over at The Daily Press’ Shad Plank Blog take a guess as to why the CNU Wason Center poll (and by extension, the Washington Post poll) is so wildly off center:
The students polled 928 active registered voters, and 616 passed their likely voter screen. The spread for voter preference reflects a design effect adjustment and statistical theory says poll conducted the same way should end up with the same result 95 times out of 100.
A caveat that Wason Center director Quentin Kidd points out: many GOP-leaning Virginians are reluctant to tell pollsters how they’ll vote, which can mean a Democrat’s lead, particularly a few weeks out, can be overstated.
I’m not so certain that gets either poll out of the woods. Something went tragically wrong in both — the question is, what?
Some of the problems have already been outlined. But what do you do when Republicans — already skeptical of a media that seems to have teeth bared and claws out for anything “outside of the mainstream” i.e. mildly right of center — refuse to participate in the Democratic bubble of information?
It’s a straight-up credibility problem.
Most of this, of course, is a straight up credibility problem among media outlets in general who put their thumb on the scale when it comes to news and information. A small dose of this is the democratization of media — and in Virginia, the proliferation of alternative outlets for contrasting viewpoints — not to mention the potential for abuse through “fake news” and other malignant operations.
The last ingredient? Good old fashioned confirmation bias. Folks simply want to read and see what they want to read and see. Witness the operation of late night comedy shows being leaned upon as actual news sources, something Jon Stewart manufactured during the anti-Bush era and has been a short-circuit around actual debate for the better part of a decade:
In very much the same way, news condensed to 800 words or more distills into quips and witticisms — and more dangerously, viewpoints cloaked in journalistic prose.
Republicans have simply inoculated themselves, and in an era where one false move, one data point, one poll answer, or one misstep can brand you a bigot, hater, racist, sexist, or what have you? It’s not small wonder why Republicans are dodging the public square and voting their conscience.
Of course, this will probably sound a tad bit hyperbolic. After all, it’s only a poll. But to some degree, it reflects a wider mistrust among conservatives and independents (and traditionalists of every stripe) to mistrust institutions that have decided to nudge the body politic in a way they simply haven’t arrived upon themselves. Vacal Havel wrote about this concept in Power for the Powerless — we have literally arrived at a point where the town is painted in slogans no one reads.
…and that’s how you get Trump.
It just might be how Virginia gets Gillespie as well.
Left Labels NRA a Terrorist Group, Ignoring Democrats’ Own Questionable Ties
Links among the political left with the Muslim Brotherhood abound, which is why labeling pro-2A groups such as the NRA as ‘terrorists’ seem a bit misplaced.
The Moment Gillespie KO’d Ralph Northam
Northam literally looked down at the camera the entire night, sounding put-off and as if there was someplace else he would rather be…
CNU Wason Polls D+11; Magically Discovers Northam With +7 Lead?
With D+11 poll, Northam does +7 — not exactly resounding when the 30% of the poll consists of graduate-level degrees and 65% make over $100K a year.
What Does This Snowball Have That Ralph Northam Doesn’t?
…a chance of actually winning this debate against Ed Gillespie.
Preserving What is Dear to Us
The commonality between both sides of the gun control debate lies at the very root of our human nature, and that is to take active measures to preserve what is dear to us.
Ralph Northam Is a Confused Man
Northam never refutes the charge.
Ralph Northam’s campaign is starting to slide into the truly bizarre with this latest ad blaming Donald Trump for MS-13, just days after issuing an ad saying he was willing to work with Trump, and months after calling Trump a “narcissistic maniac.”
No, you’re not the only person confused.
You want to know what’s truly odd about this ad?
NORTHAM: Ed Gillespie’s attack ad linking me to MS-13 is despicable.
Period. Full stop. Northam never refutes the charge.
Instead, the ad moves on to three other heart-tuggers before moving on to the truly headscratching moment of the ad.
NORTHAM: …because for Ed Gillespie to blame me for MS-13 is nothing more than a page from Donald Trump’s book.
…but Northam never refutes the charge.
Now Northam claims the link is despicable. Northam even sounds genuinely despondent about the consequences of his policies.
…but Northam never refutes the charge.
Just in case anyone wants to come back to center on this and review the Ed Gillespie ad concerning sanctuary cities and MS-13:
At what point does Northam explain that the link between sanctuary cities and the rise of violent criminal gangs such as MS-13 is an unfactual one in this ad?
Northam never refutes the charge.
The reader — and the viewer — are left with two conclusions: that Gillespie’s point is valid, and that Northam has no explanation otherwise.
More to the point, the panicked effort to refute the evidence runs right over the top of a previously priced and paid-for ad campaign targeting independents.
But it doesn’t matter. Northam never refutes the charge.
UPDATE: There seems to be some confusion as to whether or not MS-13 is actually a problem among our more center-left readers, so here is a good overview of the problem from The National Interest (about as centrist an outlet as we could find).
In short, between a problem of “catch and release” and the violent nature of the street gang, MS-13 is not only a high level threat in urban areas, but was the first gang to be labeled a transnational gang by the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI).
Consider this comparison. If a terrorist organization that totaled 33,000 and operated across borders was being aided and abetted by a lax immigration policy, would you be rightly concerned? For comparison purposes, ISIS at its height was only able to muster 31,000 according to CIA estimates.
Here is the most recent update from the U.S. Department of Justice on the size, strength, capabilities and extent of MS-13’s presence in the United States and Central America.
The debate over sanctuary cities is symptomatic of a larger policy of benign neglect over the last two decades. There are millions who are caught between the hard realities of law enforcement and the heartfelt desire to become American citizens.
Yet it is willful ignorance alone that refuses to recognize that violent criminal gangs and multinational narcotics operatives use these sluices to funnel illegal activity — drugs, extortion, sexual slavery. Sanctuary cities may indeed be an Easter egg, but no one responsibly denies that MS-13 isn’t and doesn’t take full advantage of that latitude.
Northam doesn’t even come close to recognizing this reality. Nor does he seem to want to grapple with the hard realities such policies as creating havens for illegal activity create. Certainly one can be compassionate towards families of undocumented workers while recognizing (and owning) that a policy position in favor of sanctuary cities envelops both the positive and contaminate repercussions of such a stance.
…or maybe they can’t. Northam never refutes the charge.
Impact of Hurricanes Felt in September Jobs Report
The impact of the hurricane season doesn’t mask the underlying strength of the American recovery, and there are three great reasons why.
Schilling: Anarchists Encourage Monticello HS Football Players To Take a Knee
Solidarity C’ville is bullying students into “taking a knee” for Friday night football, taking exception with Monticello HS’s commitment to free speech.